Mu gihe Iserukiramuco ry'Impeshyi ryegereje, abakora mu bucuruzi bw'amahanga bagiye kwinjira mu idirishya ry'ingenzi ngarukamwaka -Intangiriro ikomeye y'umwaka wa 2026. Gusubukurwa kw'imirimo nyuma y'ibiruhuko, kongera kuvugurura ububiko bw'ibikoresho mu mahanga, ubucuruzi bwa elegitoroniki bwambukiranya imipaka butangira gutangizwa ibicuruzwa bishya, hamwe n'izamuka ry'ibiciro ku masoko ari kuzamuka, hamwe no kuvugurura uruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa ku isi, kwiyongera k'ubusabe bw'ubukorano n'ingufu nshya, hamwe n'impinduka mu miterere y'inzira z'ubwikorezi n'ibiciro by'imizigo —guhitamo ibyiciro by'ibicuruzwa bikwiye, gushyira igihe cy'ibikorwa byawe neza, no gucunga umwanya w'imizigo mbere y'igihe bizagena neza uko umwaka uzagenda..
I. Urwego rwa mbere rw'Ubucuruzi bw'Amahanga mu 2026: Iterambere rihamye hamwe no kuvugurura imiterere y'inyubako
•Iterambere rusange: Goldman Sachs ateganya ko ukwiyongera kw'ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga mu Bushinwa (bigizwe na USD) bizagera kuri 5.6% mu 2026, aho ingano y'ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga izakomeza kwiyongeraho hejuru ya 5%, bikagaragaza imbaraga zikomeye.
•Icyerekezo cy’imiterere: Inganda zikora ibikoresho, inganda zikoresha ikoranabuhanga rihanitse, ingufu nshya, n’ubucuruzi bwa interineti bukorerwa ku mipaka bikomeje kuyobora; iterambere ry’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga hagati n’ibicuruzwa by’imigabane riruta cyane iry’ibicuruzwa bikoreshwa n’abantu.
•Imiterere y'isoko: ASEAN mbere, Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati / Uburusiya / Afurika ikura cyane, Uburayi na Amerika bigaragaza ko izamuka buhoro buhoro.
•Amakuru y'ingenzi: Mu 2025, agaciro k'ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga mu Bushinwa kageze kuri tiriyari 26.99 z'amanyarwanda, byiyongereyeho 6.1% ugereranyije n'umwaka ushize; ibicuruzwa bikorerwa mu nganda byageze kuri tiriyari 16.03 z'amanyarwanda, byiyongereyeho 9.2%, bingana na 59.4% by'ibicuruzwa byose byoherejwe mu mahanga.
•Ibiranga ibikoresho: Ubushobozi bwo kohereza ibintu buri hasi mbere y'iminsi mikuru, bugakira vuba nyuma yayo; ihindagurika ry'inzira za Aziya-Uburayi/Mediterane, igihe cyo gutwara ibintu kidahindagurika mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya/Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati.
II. Ibyiciro by'ingenzi bya Q1 bya 2026 kugira ngo utangire neza
1. "Ibintu bitatu bishya": Moteri y'ingenzi y'umwaka, Iterambere rirambye mu gihembwe cya mbere
Imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi (EVs), bateri za lithium, n'ibice bya photovoltaic (PV) bikomeje kuba ibintu bikomeye bitera iterambere ry'ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga. Kuvugurura mu mahanga nyuma y'ibiruhuko, hamwe n'ubukene bukabije bwa politiki n'ibikorwa remezo.
Amakuru y'ingenzi:
• Igipimo cyose cyo kohereza mu mahanga "Ibice Bishya Bitatu" mu 2025 cyegerejeRMB tiriyari 1.3,Ubwiyongere bwikubye inshuro 3.5 mu myaka 5hejuru27.1%umwaka ku wundi.
•Imodoka nshya zikoresha ingufu: Ibicuruzwa byoherejwe mu mahanga byagezeIbikoresho miliyoni 2.315mu mezi 11 ya mbere ya 2025,+ 102.9%umwaka ku wundi; igiciro mpuzandengo cy'igipimoUSD 20.000–30.000Agaciro k'ukwezi kumwe k'ukwezi k'Ukuboza kohereza hanze+ 71.7%umwaka ku wundi.
•Bateri za Lithium: Agaciro ko koherezwa mu mahanga mu 2025Miliyari 570.86 z'ama-ruble,+ 24.4%umwaka ku wundi; Kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga muri Mutarama kugeza Nzerimiliyari 55.38 z'amadolari y'Amerika,+ 26.8%umwaka ku wundi.
•Ingufu z'izuba: Ibicuruzwa byoherejwe mu mahanga byararenzeMiliyari 200 z'ama-rumpmu gihe cy'imyaka 4 yikurikiranya; ubwinshi bw'ibikenewe mu gusiga amashanyarazi mu mahanga mu gihembwe cya mbere.
Amasoko y'ingenzi: ASEAN, Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati, Uburusiya, Afurika y'Amajyaruguru, Amerika y'Epfo
Ingingo z'ingenzi z'ibijyanye n'ibikoresho:
•NEV: Amato ya Ro-Ro / imiyoboro y'amazi, imenyekanisha ry'ibicuruzwa biteje akaga, impushya zo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga, uburenganzira bwo kwemererwa kujya muri gasutamo
•Bateri za Lithium: UN38.3, icyemezo cy'ibicuruzwa biteje akaga, gupakira ibintu bike, gushyira imbere umwanya wagenewe umurongo
•Ingufu z'izuba: Umutwaro wuzuye w'amakontenari, witondere cyane cyane igihe cyo kuvugurura imiterere y'ibiciro byo kugabanyirizwa TVA
Iteganyagihe rya Q1: Iterambere ry'umwaka ku wundi ryakomeje kugaragara ku25%–40%; umwanya muto w'ibikoresho by'ububiko ugaragazakubona umwanya mbere y'iminsi mikuru.
2. Ikoranabuhanga n'Ikoranabuhanga: Ikoranabuhanga rikoresha ubwenge bw'ubwenge, rikora neza cyane (Iterambere ry'ubuhanga buhanitse)
Biyobowe na seriveri za AI, ibigo by'amakuru, n'ibikoresho by'ikoranabuhanga bikoreshwa n'abaguzi,imiyoboro ihuriweho, mudasobwa, ibikoresho by'itumanaho, n'ibipimo by'ibyerekanwabarimo kuzamuka cyane.
Amakuru y'ingenzi:
• Agaciro ko kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga mu Ukuboza 2025+ 47.7%umwaka ku wundi,kurusha telefoni zigendanwa nk'igicuruzwa kinini cyoherezwa mu mahanga.
• Igipimo cy'ukwezi kumwe cy'izamuka rya mudasobwa n'ibikoresho by'itumanaho bidafite umugozi cyageze ku89.2%na66.9%uko bikurikirana; kohereza telefoni zigendanwa mu mahanga+ 41.2%.
• Ibikoresho byo mu bwoko bwa AI byoherejwe muri Amerika byiyongera48.3%–89.2%, bitera izamuka rikomeye ry’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga mu ikoranabuhanga n’ikoranabuhanga mu Bushinwa.
Amasoko y'ingenzi: Amerika, Uburayi, Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba, Ubuyapani, Koreya y'Epfo
Ingingo z'ingenzi z'ibijyanye n'ibikoresho: Imitwaro ifite agaciro gakomeye ikunda gutwara ibintu mu kirere / amato yihuta, kugenzura ubushyuhe n'ubushuhe, gukurikirana ibintu byose, garanti y'ibyangiritse bike.
Iteganyagihe rya Q1: Igihe cy'ubwiyongere bw'ibicuruzwa by'ikoranabuhanga; ibiciro by'ibicuruzwa byo mu kirere bizamuka buri gihe muri Gashyantare-Werurwe; igipimo cy'izamuka30%+.
3. Imashini n'Ubwubatsi bw'Amato: Ibirarane bikomeye by'ibicuruzwa, ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga biramba cyane
Imashini rusange, moteri, ibikoresho byo mu rugo, n'ubwubatsi bw'amatoinyungu ku iterambere ry’inganda ku isi ndetse n’izamuka ry’ibirarane mu mikoreshereze y’ibikoresho, hamwe n’ibicuruzwa byiyongera cyane mu gihembwe cya mbere.
Amakuru y'ingenzi:
• Kohereza ibicuruzwa by'imashini n'amashanyarazi mu mahanga mu 2025 byageze kuRMB tiriyari 12.07hejuru9.6%, kubara ibya60.5%by'ibicuruzwa byose byoherezwa mu mahanga.
• Ibicuruzwa by'ingenzi nkaamato, moteri zitanga moteri, ipompo, compressorsbyagize uruhare rungana na 0.4–1 ku ijana mu izamuka ry’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga.
Ibyiciro by'ingenzi: Pompe, compressor, moteri, ibyuma bikonjesha mu ngo, imashini zimesa, ibyuma bikonjesha by'ubucuruzi, amato y'amakontenari / amato y'amazi
Amasoko y'ingenzi: ASEAN, Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati, Afurika, Amerika y'Epfo, Uburayi
Ingingo z'ingenzi z'ibijyanye n'ibikoresho: Gukomeza imizigo minini, imitako irambuye / hejuru hafunguye, gucuruza ibicuruzwa biva kuri gasutamo hamwe n'amakamyo.
Iteganyagihe rya Q1: Ibyizere byinshi, amasezerano menshi y'igihe kirekire; igipimo cy'izamuka8%–12%, ikwiriye gutegurwa igihe kirekire.
4. Ibintu by'ingenzi by'ubucuruzi bwa elegitoroniki: Gutangiza ibicuruzwa bishya mu mpeshyi + Gukoresha mu biruhuko, kwiyongera gukabije kw'ibicuruzwa bito kandi bihindagurika vuba
Gutangiza ibicuruzwa bishya mu mahanga mu mpeshyi, igihe cyo gusubira ku ishuri, kuvugurura amazu, n'ibikorwa byo hanze, hamwe n'iterambere ryinshi ry'ubucuruzi bushingiye kuri interineti mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya, mu Burusiya no mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati —ibintu bito byoroheje, ibicuruzwa bicuruzwa byihuta, ibikoresho byo mu rugo, n'ibikoresho bitogukomeza kubona ubwinshi bw'ibitero by'intambara.
Amakuru y'ingenzi:
• Igipimo cy’ubucuruzi bwa elegitoroniki mu Bushinwa kiteganijwe kugera ku rwego rwo hejuruRMB tiriyari 3.2mu 2026, bireba28%y'ibicuruzwa by'amahanga byose byoherezwa mu mahanga.
• Isoko ry'ubucuruzi bwa elegitoroniki muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba rizarengamiliyari 150 z'amadolari y'Amerikamu 2026, hamwe n'izamuka ry'umwaka rya15%Iterambere ry'ubucuruzi bwa elegitoroniki muri Indoneziya22%, Ubuhinde17.6%.
• Konti za B2B zikorera mu bucuruzi bwa elegitoroniki hafi ya70%, hamwe n'izamuka rinini cyane ugereranyije na B2C; ubwinshi bw'imizigo muri Q1+30%+ukwezi ku kwezi.
Ibyiciro by'ingenziIbikoresho byo mu rugo bya buri munsi, ibikoresho byo kubikamo ibintu, ibikoresho bito, ibikoresho byo mu gikoni, imyidagaduro yo hanze, ibikoresho bya siporo, imyenda yo mu mpeshyi, ibikoresho by'amatungo, ibikoresho bya 3C
Amasoko y'ingenzi: Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba (TikTok Shop), Uburusiya, Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati, ubucuruzi bwa elegitoroniki bwo mu gace
Ingingo z'ingenzi z'ibijyanye n'ibikoresho: Ububiko bwo mu mahanga bwo kubikamo ibintu, udupaki duto twagenewe umurongo, serivisi ya DDP, igihe gihamye cyo gutwara ibintu, igihombo gito cyo kugaruka.
Iteganyagihe rya Q1: Umubare w'imizigo y'ubucuruzi bwa elegitoroniki+30%+ukwezi ku kwezi; ibiciro bya nyuma byazamutse ku rugero ruciriritse.
5. Ibikoresho by'ingenzi by'igihe cy'itumba n'ibicuruzwa byihuta: Uburusiya / Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati / Uburayi Idirishya ryo kongera kuvugurura
Mutarama-Werurwe biracyari igihe cy'ubushyuhe mu gice cy'Amajyaruguru y'Isi. Ubusabe bwoibikoresho bishyushya, imyenda yo mu rugo ishyushye, imyenda minini, n'ibikoresho bitoikomeje gukomera mu Burusiya, mu Burayi bw'Iburasirazuba, no muri Aziya yo Hagati.
Amakuru y'ingenzi:
• Iterambere ry’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga mu Burusiya no muri Aziya yo Hagati ryarenze15%+mu bihembwe byinshi bikurikirana; kwifuza cyane ibikoresho bishyushya, amashuka akoreshwa n'amashanyarazi, n'amakoti yo kwambara.
• Iterambere ryo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga muri ASEAN mu 202511.1%Amerika y'Epfo9.8%Afurika13.7%; ubushobozi bukomeye bw'ibicuruzwa bicuruzwa mu masoko ari mu nzira y'amajyambere.
Ibyiciro by'ingenzi: Ibishyushya amashanyarazi, amashuka y'amashanyarazi, amashuka yo hasi, amashuka, ibikoresho bito bikoreshwa mu burayi
Ibisabwa by'ingenzi: Impamyabushobozi yuzuye (CE/EAC/GOST), ihindagurika ry'amashanyarazi, ipaki ikurikije amategeko
Ingingo z'ingenzi z'ibijyanye n'ibikoresho: Gari za moshi hagati y'Ubushinwa n'Uburusiya, inzira zitwara imizigo mu kirere, igihe gihamye cyo gutwara abantu ku cyambu cy'ubutaka.
Iteganyagihe rya Q1: Kongera kuvugurura ibicuruzwa mu gihe cy'ukwezi kumwe nyuma y'ikiruhuko; ibicuruzwa bidafite icyemezo gikwiye bishobora kwangwa.
6. Ibikomoka ku buhinzi n'ibiribwa byateguriwe: Iterambere ryimbitse ku buzima, ryoroheje, kandi rinini muri ASEAN / Amerika ya Ruguru
Ibiribwa byateguwe, poroteyine zikomoka ku bimera, ibikomoka ku mazi, icyayi, n'ibikomoka ku buhinzi byihariyeyungukira ku mirire myiza n'ibyo abaguzi bo mu Bushinwa bakeneye mu mahanga. Imiterere y'uruhererekane rw'ibiribwa n'amategeko ni byo bipimo by'ingenzi.
Amakuru y'ingenzi:
• Ibikomoka ku buhinzi byoherezwa mu mahanga bikomeza kwiyongera guhoraho kwa5%–8%; icyifuzo cy'ibigega bikonjeshwa+ 12%umwaka ku wundi.
• Isoko ry'amatungo ku isi ryitezwe ko rigiye kwegerezamiliyari 500 z'amadolari y'Amerikamu 2026, hamwe n'izamuka ry'umwaka rya6%–8%; ibicuruzwa by'amatungo byoherezwa mu mahanga byiyongera icyarimwe.
Ibyiciro by'ingenzi: Ibikomoka kuri soya, ibikomoka ku mazi, ibiryo byateguwe, icyayi, imbuto z'ubunyobwa, ibirungo
Amasoko y'ingenzi: ASEAN, Amerika, Kanada, Ositaraliya, Uburayi
Ingingo z'ingenzi z'ibijyanye n'ibikoresho: Ibikoresho bikonjesha, uburyo bwo gukurikirana ubushyuhe, igenzura ry'ibicuruzwa no gutanga amakuru kuri gasutamo, kubahiriza ibirango.
Iteganyagihe rya Q1: Iterambere rihoraho, igipimo cyo kugura kiri hejuru, kibereye kohereza ibicuruzwa mu buryo burambye kandi buhamye.
III. Isoko ry'ingenzi rya 2026 Q1 n'amahirwe y'inzira
1. ASEAN (Umufatanyabikorwa Mukuru mu by'Ubucuruzi)
• Igipimo cy'izamuka ry'ubukungu giteganyijwe9.4%mu 2026.
• Igihe cyihuse cyo gutwara ibintu, ihendutse kandi ihoraho.
• Kohereza ibintu byinshi cyaneibicuruzwa byo mu rugo, 3C, imashini, ibicuruzwa by'ubucuruzi bwa elegitoroniki.
Ibyiza:Imodoka zitwara abantu mu mazi zikoresha gari ya moshi, ubwikorezi bw'ibintu byinshi ku butaka.
2. Uburusiya na Aziya yo Hagati
• Ubwiyongere bw'abakeneyegushyushya, ibikoresho byo mu rugo, ibicuruzwa bicuruzwa byihuta.
• Igipimo cy'izamuka15%+.
• Mbere na mberegari ya moshi, gutwara ibintu mu kirere, gutwara abantu n'ibintu ku butaka.
• Icyihutirwa: Iyubahirizwa ry’amategeko n’icyemezo.
3. Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati
• Ubusabe bukomeye bwoingufu nshya, ibikorwa remezo, ibikoresho by'ikoranabuhanga, ibikoresho by'ikoranabuhanga.
• Igipimo cy'izamuka10%–15%.
•Imitwaro yo mu mazi itaziguye + ububiko bw'ibintu mu mahangakugira ngo habeho ipiganwa rikomeye.
4. Uburayi (Inzira zo muri Mediterane / Aziya-Uburayi)
• Kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga i Burayi byazamutse8.1%mu mezi 11 ya mbere ya 2025; gukira bizakomeza muri 2026.
• Ibyiciro by'ingenzi:Ingufu nshya, ikoranabuhanga, imashini.
• Witondere ihindagurika ry'inzira n'ibiciro by'inyongera;ububiko bw'ahantu hakiri kare.
5. Afurika na Amerika y'Epfo
• Iterambere rikomeye muriimodoka, imashini, ibikoresho, ibikoresho by'ubwubatsi.
• Iterambere rya Afurika13.7%Amerika y'Epfo9.8%.
• Mbere na mbereFCL, uburenganzira bugoye bwo kwishyura gasutamo.
• Itanga inamaibisubizo by'ibikoresho by'igihe kimwe.
6. Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika
• Gusubira inyuma mu gice cy'ibanze ariko mu buryo bw'imiterere munsi y'igitutu.
• Igipimo cy'izamuka giteganyijwe hafi-5%mu 2026.
• Ibande kuriibicuruzwa by’agaciro kanini kandi byubahiriza amategeko.
• Icyihutirwa ku bijyanye n'ibijyanye n'ubwikorezi:Ubwato bwihuta, kugenzura ubushyuhe, gukurikirana neza.
IV. Ibitekerezo by'ingenzi byo mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2026 by'ibijyanye n'ubwikorezi n'ubwikorezi (Iby'ingenzi ku banyamwuga mu bucuruzi bw'amahanga)
1. Injyana y'ibiruhuko by'iserukiramuco ry'impeshyi
• Inganda zafunzwe hagati muri Gashyantare, zizongera gusubukurwa mu mpera za Gashyantare.
• Inzira zo kohereza ibicuruzwa, ibyambu, gasutamo ku izunguruka ry'imisoro.
•Igice cya mbere cya Gashyantare ni cyo gihe cya nyuma cyo kohereza ibicuruzwa byihariye.
2. Ibiciro by'umwanya n'ibiciro
• Mbere y'ikiruhuko: Ahantu hato ku nzira zo mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya / mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
• Nyuma y'ikiruhuko: Gukira byuzuye bitarenze Werurwe.
•Shyira imbere ububiko bw'ibikoresho bishya bitatu / ibikoresho by'ikoranabuhanga bifite agaciro kanini.
3. Imirongo itukura yo kubahiriza amategeko
•Bateri za Lithium / NEV: Gupakira ibicuruzwa biteje akaga, inomero ya Loni, gutangaza buri gihe — irinde gufunga amakontenari no gucibwa amande.
•Ibicuruzwa by'ubucuruzi bwa elegitoroniki: Ibirango by'ubucuruzi mbere y'igenzura, kutubahiriza amategeko, ibyemezo, ibisabwa kuri gasutamo aho ibicuruzwa bijya.
4. Ingamba zihindagurika
•Ibyiciro by'abagura ibintu byinshi: Ibigega byo mu mahanga mbere y'ikiruhuko, bitangwa mu buryo butaziguye nyuma y'ikiruhuko.
•Amasezerano y'imizigo myinshi / Amasezerano y'igihe kirekire: Gufata umwanya wo kwiyandikishaIminsi 10–15 mbere y'uko, irinde umubyigano ku munsi wa mbere ugarutse ku kazi.
V. Incamake: Intangiriro ikomeye ya 2026 — Ibanda ku mirongo itatu y'ingenzi
1. Inzego zigamije iterambere ryinshi: Itatu Nshya, Ikoranabuhanga mu by'Itumanaho n'Ikoranabuhanga, Imashini n'Ubwubatsi bw'Amato (Icyizere cyo hejuru cyane)
2. Amasoko Akomeye Yitaweho: ASEAN, Uburusiya, Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati, Afurika (Iterambere ryihuse cyane)
3. Gufata ibyiza bya serivisi zo gutwara ibintu: Gushyira ahantu hatekanye mbere y'ikiruhuko, gushyira imbere kubahiriza amategeko, gushyira mu bikorwa ububiko mu mahanga, gutuma abantu babona neza kuva ku ntangiriro kugeza ku iherezo.
Umwaka w'Ifarashi urageze. Guhitamo ibyiciro by'ibicuruzwa bikwiye = kimwe cya kabiri cy'intambara yatsinze. Guhitamo umufatanyabikorwa ukwiye w'ibikoresho = urugendo rudafite impungenge.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gashyantare-28-2026